Beware of Tehran

What follows is a heavily edited (and, as such, slightly incoherent) article I wrote for the school newspaper which was not published. Suffice to say that, if it had every appeared in print, the speaker would have been in alot of trouble back in Iran. Even in this version I have tried to remove all identifying remarks and will identify him only as 'Reza'.

Reza dismissed the idea of a full-scale U.S. invasion of Iran saying that – all other considerations aside – America simply doesn’t have the resources or manpower to invade Iran. Doing so would give free reign to every other regime which is restrained by the threat of American power, such as North Korea.

Reza explained why he believes Iran will not use its prospective nuclear arsenal on Israel. He reminded the attendees that Israel is home to over a million Muslims, as well as Muslim holy sites. This, combined with Iran’s antipathy towards the use of WMDs (in large part caused by the memory of Iraqi chemical attacks during the war) and fear of the inevitable retaliation, is enough to forestall any large-scale aggression.

Reza also spoke about the character of Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad and why has taken to making such inflammatory statements recently. “You have to understand where Ahmadinejad comes from.” According to Reza, Ahmadinejad and his closest allies are mostly veterans of the Iran-Iraq War who are dissatisfied with the way the Islamic Republic of Iran has ‘strayed’ from the values of the ’79 revolution. Reza stressed that Amadinejad and his cohorts use populist rhetoric and social programs to appeal to the working classes and are possessed of a desire to be self-sufficient both domestically and in the international community.

He explained Iran’s desire for nuclear power is separate from Achmadinejad, since the program started before Achmadinejad took office and is supported by a large section of Iran’s power elite.

The second part of the lecture was given to a discussion of Iran’s relationship with the West, and the United States in particular. Mutual mistrust is a key theme in U.S. – Iran relations, which he believes has contributed in large part to the current impasse. He stressed that both sides must show they are willing to trust each other and pay attention for conciliatory gestures instead of simply dismissing them out of hand. Reza remarked pointedly that the current U.S. policy of “treating the Iranians as if they were crazy liars isn’t helping”.

To deal with this issue, Reza suggested that President Bush should offer Iran a deal on nuclear energy which couldn’t be reconfigured into use for nuclear bombs. Such an offer, he said, would put the Iranian government in a corner, giving them the nuclear power they say they want and denying the nuclear arsenal they still claim is not their objective.