German Elections: It Could be Worse

So, the German elections are over but nobody has won. The three parties that were in power or striving for power - The Social Democrats, Greens, and Christian Democrats - all lost seats, while the liberal FDP and socialist Left Party or Linkspartei (formerly the Party of Democratic Socialism) gained significantly, achieving roughly 10% and 9% of the vote, respectively. This makes the old Red-Green alliance between the SPD and Greens unworkable, but leaves the presumed government of a CDU-FDP coalition in basically the same situation.

Most people put the blame (or the credit) for Schroeder's decline in popularity on Germany's 11% unemployment rate, while the CDU's Angela Merkel lost much of an early lead by batting around a wildly unpopular flat-tax scheme and saying that one of her as main actions as Chancellor would be to "make it easier for people to be fired."

Interestingly, while the SPD is the traditional 'left' party and the CDU is the respectable 'right' party, this elections seems to represent a shift away from both of them, with the left moving left and the right moving center.

Anyway, the governments that are possible:

Great Coalition - CDU and SPD

If CDU can maintain their seat plurality Merkel will be chancelor, despite what Schroeder is saying. However this coalition seems like a recipe for paralysis, as the joining of both major parties to achieve super-majorities usually only happens during periods of great national crisis.

Traffic light coalition - SPD, FDP and Greens

Called traffic light because the colors are red, yellow and green. FDP already said that is out of the question and even the Greens would be against it, I think, because Joschka Fischer would rather go into oposition than be anything less than foreign minister and vice-chancellor (traditional trappings of the coalition partner's top candidate).

While FDP and Greens are almost diametrically oposite on economy and environment they share some values on social issues. For example they are in agreement on abolishing the conscription.

Jamaican Coalition - CDU, FDP and Greens

Similar to above, just with CDU at the helm. The CSU (a Bavaria-only party closely allied with the CDU) leader already showed interest in talking to the Greens.

Red-Red-Green coalition - SPD, Left Party and Greens

SPD and the Left party do not like each other. One part of the party is formed by breakaways from SPD - such as former finance minister Oskar Lafontaine. The other is the remnant of the former East German ruling party, one with which SPD refused to coalesce on the federal level already (but with which it formed coalitions in some eastern states).

This is unlikely to happen because of animosity between SPD and Left Party and because Greens are unlikely to play third fiddle, even though they came in fifth and may be lucky to end up playing second viola.


Since we live in a majoritarian system that has two parties and not five, this might all seem terribly confusing. It is, and will probably be resolved by some shady backdoor dealings between party leaders. Even so, don't count on the new German government lasting too long.